well considering both his car and your car stock run high 13's I would say if he is moddified he will beat you. The only thing that might save you is if his car is as "unreliable" as you are saying. If his car was running tip top shape with any kind of mods he will beat you (assuming equal drivers). So if you want to make it a closer race my suggestion would be stage 2: turbo back exhaust, Cobb AP with stage 2 map or equivalent ECU managment, and for kicks maybe the spt or cobb intake.
77 280z, 84 300zx, 06 WRX TR